The Countdown Begins

We are days away from the Grand Depart of the 105th edition of the Tour de France. The race begins in the Vendee region along the Atlantic coast and will travel across the northern part of France before heading down to the Alps, across the Massif Central, and finally the Pyrenees before heading to Paris for the final stage along the Champs Elysees.

The 2018 race will contain a team time trial on Stage 3, a visit to the Mur de Bretagne (2x) on Stage 6, a scaled down version of Paris-Roubaix on Stage 9, three summit finishes in the Alps and Pyrenees, a Formula-One grid start on the 65km stage to Saint-Lary-Soulon, and an Individual Time Trial on Stage 20 that should crown the winner before the procession into Paris.

There are many intriguing story lines that range from the ongoing doping case against Chris Froome, to the reduction of team rosters from 9 to 8 riders, to the route of the race. In the coming days I will break down each week of the race, offer opinions on the favorites for each classification, and discuss the stories that are sure to break right before the race begins.

For those of you who are interested we will have a Velogames group the information is below:

League Name: Three Weeks in July 2018
League Code: 514588224

Thanks for reading! Please leave comments on what you would like to see and what topics you want to discuss.

 

 

 

Time Trial Recap

Stage 20 of the Tour was a 22.5 kilometer technical route around Marseilles the begins and ends at the Orange Velodrome. The route also included a climb up to the Notre-Dame de la Garde (~2 km @ 9% grade).

American Taylor Phinney capped off an exceptional first Tour by setting the early standard of 29:21 after starting 4th and catching all but one rider in front of him. Phinney’s time was beaten shortly after by Maciej Bodnar who finished in 28:15. This would turn out to be the winning time of the day and is a bit of poetic justice as Bodnar just missed winning a stage from the breakaway earlier in the Tour.

The race between the contenders went according to form with Froome finishing 3rd on the stage with Uran right behind in 8th, 25 seconds behind Froome. Bardet gave it his best effort but lost almost 2 minutes to Froome and barely held onto a podium spot by 1 second of Mikel Landa. Fabio Aru and Dan Martin had solid rides but didn’t do anything to affect the overall standings.

I liked the start/finish inside the stadium. The cheers that greeted each rider rolling down the ramp and again at the finish line were amazing. It was good to hear crowds on the level of soccer or football associated with the sport of cycling.

Stage 21 is the ceremonial stage into Paris with the sprint finish on the Champs Elysees. Even though Landa is only 1 second off of the podium it is unexpected (and frankly would be against Tour tradition) for Sky/Landa to attack in order to take back the needed time.

It has been a great Tour and honestly a lot more entertaining than I expected at the beginning of the race. I’ll have a post Tour wrap up article up in the next few days.

 

 

Stage 18 Recap/Stage 19 Preview

Today was the day that Romain Bardet, Rigoberto Uran, and Fabio Aru HAD to attack if they had any chance at all to win the Tour. On the Col d’Izoard they tried to go at Froome and they COULD NOT DROP HIM. 

Ag2r tried to out-Sky Sky on the lower slopes of the climb and ended up burning off their own team. Contador once again tried to get off the front and had a small gap but his legs just don’t have the pop in them that they have had in the past. Still it was a valiant effort by the 2 time Tour winner to not give up. Once again Aru was not able to keep up once the tempo was raised and lost more time. 

Stage 19 should be a day for the sprinters even though there are 3 category III climbs on the route. The last one occurs far enough away from the finish so as not to be a factor. Maybe Andre Greipel will finally get his stage win. 

As long as the GC men maintain the status quo tomorrow then Froome should win his fourth Tour de France. He has a 23 second lead on Bardet and a 29 second lead on Uran. Neither of these riders will come within a minute of Froome on the time trial. 

Stage 17 Recap/Stage 18 Preview

Lots of fireworks on a magnificent day in the Alps. The race was clearly turned on its head with a crash taking out Green Jersey leader Marcel Kittel and Fabio Aru cracking on the slopes of the Galibier to fall off the podium completely. 

The Points Classification had come down to a nine point difference between Kittel and Micheal Matthews after the Sunweb rider took the intermediate sprint on Stage 17. Unfortunately Kittel was injured early in the stage in a crash caused by pure inattentiveness in the peloton and was forced to abandon. Matthews looks like a lock for the jersey as his nearest competition is Andre Greipel 160 points in arrears. 

The GC race was animated by Alberto Contador who went out on the attack early on the slopes of the Col de la Croix de Fer. El Pistolero briefly looked like the rider who had won two Tours and I was cheering for him to take the win today. Instead he cracked on the Galibier when fellow breakaway compatriot Primoz Rogelic attacked 5 kilometers from the summit. Rogelic would go on to take the stage win. Dan Martin put in several attacks from the main group containing Froome and the other favorites but couldn’t get one to stick. Bardet also tested the Maillot Jaune and was unsuccessful in getting a gap as well. What these attacks succeeded in doing is getting rid of second place rider Fabio Aru. At one point it looked as if Aru would crack and lose big time. To his credit he stayed within himself and limited the loss to 30 seconds. The big winner on the day was Rigoberto Uran who was able to outsprint Froome and Bardet for second and more importantly 6 bonus seconds. The current standings have Uran and Bardet equal on time 27 seconds behind Froome. Aru slips to 4th, 53 seconds back. 

Stage 18 Brioncon-Izoard

The last chance for anyone to take time back from Froome is the summit finish on the Col d’Izoard. There is always a chance that one or more of the top 4 will fail spectacularly and lose several minutes but for our purposes we will assume that won’t happen. Rigoberto Uran and Romain Bardet need to attack Froome and end the day with a few seconds in the bank ahead of the time trial on Saturday. The final climb of the day is a beast with sections over 10% in the final kilometers. Bardet needs at least 90 seconds and Uran 30-45 seconds in the bank to have a chance to win the Tour. Uran is a much better time trial rider than Bardet although not an equal of Froome. 

Who do you think makes the first move tomorrow? Will Uran attack or follow wheels and take his chances against Froome? Who will crack on the final climb? 

Stage 16 Recap/Stage 17 Preview

Once again there is no such thing as a “routine” day at the Tour de France. On paper today looked like a day for the sprinters. The climbs were early and the route leveled off heading into the finish. What the route didn’t account for was the howling winds that whipped up overnight causing vicious cross winds over the last 50 kilometers. Team Sky came to the front and caused a split in the peloton over the last 15 kilometers which caught Dan Martin, Alberto Contador, and Louis Meintjes behind the split. Martin and Meintjes mounted a furious chase but were never able to make it back to the front group. They would lose 30 seconds to Froome and the other GC leaders on the day. Contador fared even worse conceding a full minute to the leading group effectively ending any shot he had at climbing back into podium contention.

Michael Matthews would take the win and the 30 points in the Green Jersey classification. Matthews also took the intermediate sprint for 20 points and now trails Kittel by a score of 373-344. The group containing Kittel finished almost 10 minutes after the conclusion of the stage having been caught out on an early climb.

Stage 17 La Mure to Serre-Chevalier (183 km)

The race moves into the Alps on Stage 17 with a brutal day that contains four categorized climbs including Tour favorites the HC Col de la Croix de Fer (24 km @ 5.4%) and Col du Galibier (17.7 km @ 6.9%). This is the first appearance in the Tour for the Galibier since 2011.

The top 4 riders in the Tour are separated by 29 seconds so I expect the race to be aggressive from the beginning. There will be a large breakaway and depending on who is in the group the winner will most likely come from there. The main contenders will try to hit each other on the Galibier however with a 28 kilometer downhill finish there probably won’t be large time gaps.

Bardet and Aru need to try to get time on Froome if they are able. Froome will beat both of these riders by at least a minute and a half on the time trial in Marseilles so they both must race as if they are 2 minutes or more behind. Uran is not as good of a time trialist as Froome but he won’t lose as much time as Bardet and Aru, he can afford to be a little more tactical in when he chooses to try to gain time.

What do you think will happen tomorrow? Will Bardet and Aru attack? Will Froome attack and ride away from the group with that funky descending tuck/pedaling thing he did last year?

Stage 13,14 and 15 Recap/Rest Day Part 2 Thoughts

First let me apologize for not posting anything since Thursday. We were on vacation and had inconsistent internet service and then arrived home to find internet and TV are both out (Comcast/Xfinity you suck!)

 

Stage 13

Stage 13 turned out to be one of the most exciting and action packed stages so far this year. The short distance (101 km/63 miles) meant the peloton was full gas from kilometer zero with Astana unable to control the race. Attacks from Warren Barguil, Alberto Contador, and Nairo Quintana animated the stage along with Mikel Landa of Sky. Contador looked to have optimum position going into the finish but was pipped at the line by Barguil.

It was good to see El Pistolero off the front and riding offensively, dictating the race instead of following others. Quintana looked to be going better after looking very weak on Stage 12.

Stage 14

Once again there is no such thing as a routine day in the Tour de France and if you don’t pay attention, especially as the race leader, then you won’t be the leader much longer. This is exactly what happened to Fabio Aru as Astana completely dropped the ball in looking after their leader and allowed him to fall back and lose 26 seconds on the final 500 meter climb into the finish which put Froome back in Yellow.

Micheal Matthews finally got his stage victory and Team Sunweb made it two in a row. Olympic champion and my pick for the stage Greg Van Avermaet was second. This may have been the best chance for BMC to win a stage and salvage something out of this year’s Tour.

Stage 15

To quote Paul Sherwen Stage15 was a “tale of two halves”. The stage started with a Category I climb and saw a large group of 25 riders get off the front including KOM leader Warren Barguil. It was obvious from the beginning that it would be a day for the breakaway as the leading group built up a lead of over 9 minutes at one point. In the latter part of the stage Tony Martin went off the front of the breakaway group and built up a lead of over 1 minute. Martin was caught on the ascent of the Category I Col de Peyra Taillade by Warren Barguil who once again collected maximum points at the summit. The GC race began in earnest on the same climb when team Ag2r attacked Froome en mass and attempted to team time trial away. They were joined by the other GC contenders in the top 10. The situation was exacerbated by Froome experiencing a mechanical and having to switch wheels with Kwiatkowski since the team cars were so far behind. Froome was then paced back to the group ahead but burned up two teammates in the process. At the steepest part of the climb Froome had difficulty staying with the other GC contenders. Mikel Landa dropped back and paced Froome into the GC group but it was obvious the race leader was at his maximum to keep up. Louis Mentjes and Simon Yates were dueling it out for the lead in the Best Young Rider classification and were off the front of the main GC group when they were joined by Dan Martin. This small group was able to get away and finish 20 seconds ahead of the main GC group. Nairo Quintana was the big loser on the day as he became unhitched on the final climb of the day and lost 4 minutes dropping from the Top 10 completely.

Rest Day Thoughts

Going into the Alps and the final week of the Tour de France the top 5 are separated by 1:12. If the organizers were hoping for a close race then they certainly accomplished their mission.
The other classifications are not as close with Kittel leading the race for the Maillot Vert 373 points to 294 for Micheal Matthews. Warren Barguil has a virtually unassailable lead in the KOM classification with 116 points, the next closest competitors have 38.  The Best Young Rider classification is a two rider race between Simon Yates and Louis Meintjes (+3:07). It will take a big effort from Meintjes and a hiccup on the part of Yates for him to lose the Maillot Blanc.

I have really enjoyed the aggressive racing by everyone over the last week. The race is always more compelling when there are riders who are racing to win and not riding to protect their placing (i.e. “racing not to lose”). Aru and Bardet have not been bashful about attacking Froome and Sky. This resulted in Aru wearing the Maillot Jaune for two days and Bardet winning the stage into Peyragudes. The short stage into Foix was brilliant and produced the type of racing that the organizers were hoping for. I hope that we see more of these type stages in the future.

Froome is vulnerable and may not even be the strongest rider on his own team. With Mikel Landa moving over to Movistar next season it will be interesting to see if he rides for himself next week should Froome falter in the Alps. Bardet is riding to win the Tour and his team seems to be the only one of the top 5 GC riders able to support him in that goal. Astana is a mess and with the loss of Jakob Fuglsang have no one who can hang with the top riders to support Aru. Dan Martin is a threat for the final podium if he can steal a few more seconds here and there over the next few days.

Week three begins with a stage for the sprinters on Stage 16. Stage 17 is a monster stage in the Alps containing both the Col de la Croix de Fer and Col de Galibier. The finish is downhill so there probably won’t be huge time gaps if any. Stage 18 is the last chance for the GC men to gain any time before the time trial in Marseilles with a summit finish at the Col de Izoard. Stage 19 should be a stage for the sprinters. The 24 kilometer Individual Time Trial in Marseilles on Stage 20 will decide who rides into Paris wearing the Golden Fleece. Froome is the best against the clock out of the remaining GC contenders and should be able to recoup a minute to a minute and a half on the other riders.

What are you looking forward to in Week 3?

Stage 12 Recap/Stage 13 Preview

There is so much to unpack when talking about the drama on Stage 12. The queen stage of the Pyrenees did not disappoint with GC contenders attacking, cracking, and (illegally) snacking.

Stage 12 began in Pau and a large breakaway that included Michael Matthews and Marcel Kittel went off the front and built up a six-minute lead on the peloton. Matthews and Kittel fought it out for the intermediate sprint with Matthews taking the honors. As the stage progressed and the race hit the slopes of the Port de Bales the front group began to splinter with Thomas De Gent and Steve Cummings attacking over the top and the Dimension Data rider eventually dropping De Gent. Team Sky began riding a hard tempo which caused numerous riders to become unhitched. Alberto Contador put in an attack just before the summit but was quickly reeled in by the furious pace making of the Sky train. Froome and Aru went off the road on the descent and instead of attacking all of the other GC contenders looked at each other and waited for Froome and Aru to rejoin. On the slopes of the Peyresourde the remaining Sky riders upped the pace to a point where Quintana and Contador could no longer follow and were dropped. As the race entered the ridiculously steep (~20% grade) of the last 2 kilometers Kiwi rider George Bennett put in an attack that was quickly neutralized by Mikel Landa. Aru would be the next to attack and was followed by Romain Bardet who would go on to take the stage win. Riggoburto Uran would also pass Aru to finish second. Froome would crack inside the last 100 meters and lose 22 seconds which cost him the Yellow Jersey. What may be more interesting is that Landa finished ahead of Froome in 5th and now sits in 7th place overall.

After the stage was over it was announced that George Bennett and Uran would receive 20 second penalties for taking on a feed (in this case water bottles) within the last 10 kilometers of the stage. The rules state that no rider is to take on food/water within the last 20 kilometers on a flat stage or 10 kilometers on a mountain top finish. The interesting part in this is that Romain Bardet was caught on camera taking a water bottle (referred to by their French name of “bidon”) at the EXACT same time and received no penalty. This appears to be another instance of the race jury applying rules unevenly to the race. Sagan is DQ’d for an “unsafe sprint”, Bouhanni physically assaults another rider and is given a (laughable) one minute penalty on GC and a fine. Bennett and Uran are penalized 20 seconds on GC for taking an illegal feed, Bardet takes a bottle at the same time and receives no penalty. What do the two lightly/non penalized riders have in common? Both are French and riding in the Tour de France. You don’t have to be a Mensa member to figure out where this is going. In a Tour that most likely will be decided by seconds and possibly a minute those penalties are going to be significant.

The second piece of drama that unfolded from today’s stage is Mikel Landa leaving Froome on the final climb to fend for himself. Landa has said in the past that he is on the best form of his life and would like the opportunity to race for himself. Is this the first crack in the “all for one, all for Froome” armor of Team Sky? Video after the stage shows that team management was not happy with how Landa left Froome. An internal conflict could be the opening that allows Bardet, Aru, or Uran to win the Tour. In related news Froome also lost the Maillot Jaune to Aru and trails by 6 seconds. My opinion is that this is a good thing for Team Sky. They have had the jersey and by extension have been forced to defend and control the race from the beginning. With Astana having the jersey they are obligated to control tomorrow’s stage and that will allow Sky to hang back and observe. If Astana can’t control and allows someone who Sky deems a threat off the front they can always assume pacing making duties and bring that rider (or riders) back. The diminished abilities of Jakob Fuglsang due to injury will make Astana’s job controlling the race that much harder.

Stage 13 Saint-Girons to Foix (100 km)

Stage 13 is the shortest stage the Tour has seen since they did away with the double stage days back in the 80’s. The short stage along with the three Category I climbs and the fact that it is Bastille Day should make for some exciting racing. The downhill finish should negate any GC challenges or changes unless Contador and/or Quintana go full kamikaze and attack. Astana will have to be on alert all day tomorrow as attacks will be flying off the front from the opening kilometer. They have to be careful and not let too big of a group go out or they may not be able to bring them back before the finish. I expect Warren Barguil to once again get out on the breakaway and consolidate his lead in the KOM classification as well as try to win the stage for France on Bastille Day.

 

What do you think about the penalties levied against Uran and Bennett? Did Landa leave Froome to look after his own ambitions or was it an honest mistake? Can Aru hold on to Yellow until the Alps? Is that a bad thing for Sky if he does?

Stage 11 Recap/Stage 12 Preview

The old saying of “there is no such thing as a routine day in the Tour De France” held true on what should have been a fairly quiet day for the GC contenders. Romain Bardet, Jakob Fuglsang, and Alberto Contador all hit the deck (Contador twice!) in incidents at the feed zone. Contador and Bardet seem to have made it out with only bumps and bruises while Fuglsang according to Cycling News has two small fractures, one of the scaphoid bone and one in the radial head near the elbow. With the Pyrenees starting tomorrow it will be interesting to see if these crashes affect any of these riders in their efforts to attack Froome.

Other than the crash-fest in the feed zone today went as predicted with another win by super sprinter Marcel Kittel. With the win he increases his lead in the Green Jersey classification 335 to 201 for the next highest placed rider in Micheal Matthews. The win for Quick Step wasn’t easy as Bora-Hansgrohe’s Maciej Bodner very nearly stayed away until the end only being caught with less than 500 meters to go.

 

Stage 12 Pau to Peyragudes 214.5 km

The Pyrenees begin on Stage 12 with a departure from Pau and a route that climbs 6 categorized climbs and finishes on the Category II climb to Peyragudes (2.4km @ 8.4%) with the last 200 meters at 16% grade. Before arriving at the final climb of the day the peloton will have already climbed the Category I Col de Mente (6.9km @ 8.1 %), the HC Port de Bales (11.7km @ 7.7%), and the Category I Col de Peyresourde (9.7km @ 7.8%).

If riders such as Romain Bardet, Fabio Aru, and Nairo Quintana hope to win the Tour De France then they must attack on this stage. Matching Froome will do nothing for their cause since Stage 13 is a veritable sprint at only 100 kilometers long and a downhill finish which leaves one stage in the Alps and the time trial to take back time. I expect Ag2r will be very active as will Dan Martin of Quick Step. Aru and Quintana will need to lay their cards on the table and not follow wheels all day. The climb of the HC Port de Bales is where the attacks will need to happen. There will be only 30 kilometers left to the finish with almost half of those uphill. If a combination of Bardet, Aru, Quintana, and Martin (any 2 or 3 of those riders) try to go off the front it will put Sky into difficulty and isolate Froome. If that ends up being the case then anything can happen. The goal is to make Sky use their team up and then make Froome cover all of the attacks himself. If he can do that then he deserves to be the Tour champion.

Warren Barguil will attempt to get into the breakaway to add to his KOM lead and to try to win the stage which he is capable of doing. It will probably be a big breakaway group (15 riders or more) so the winner will almost certainly come from the break. This could be a day for Thibault Pinot, Thomas De Gent, and Lilian Calmejean as well.

Prediction: Pinot gets his first win of the Tour, Bardet and Martin throw everything but the kitchen sink at Froome and Sky but are ultimately unsuccessful. Aru and Quintana follow wheels and don’t do much of anything but end up in 2nd and 3rd after the stage.

What do you think will happen tomorrow?

Stage 10 Recap/Stage 11 Preview

Stage 10 went about how we all expected. A 2 man breakaway went off the front from kilometer zero, the peloton let them dangle out there until 10 kilometers to go where the sprinters teams went to the front and tried to organize the lead-out trains. Once again the final kilometers had several 90 degree turns that were taken at full speed, fortunately no one crashed this time. The finale was a mess with no one lead out able to take control of the race so it turned into a free for all at the end. Marcel Kittel was able to come down the left side of the group from way back to take the win easily. Kittel won his fourth stage of this Tour and thirteenth overall to set a new record for Germans. Right now there is not another sprinter in the world who can match Kittel’s speed the last 250 meters.

French sprinter Nacer Bouhanni was fined 200 francs and docked one minute on GC for taking a swing at a Quickstep rider who bumped into him during the chaos of the final kilometers. Bouhanni has a reputation for being a hot head and this is not the first time he has been involved in an altercation during or after a race. In what has to be the highest form of hypocrisy, Bouhanni was only fined and docked time instead of being relegated on the sprint or even disqualified. How taking a swing at another rider is not viewed in the same lens as what happened between Sagan and Cavendish is beyond me. It pays to be French in this situation I suppose.

Stage 11 Eymet to Pau 203.5km

Stage 11 should be another one for the sprinters before the race heads into the high mountains on Stage 12 Thursday. It doesn’t appear that anyone can beat Kittel even when his lead out train mucks it up like they did today. Eventually Greipel will win a stage…..or will he?

Kittel is my pick on sprint stages until proven otherwise.

 

Rest Day Musings/Stage 10 Preview

I have written and rewritten this post several times today.

Each time I begin the intent is to recap what has happened so far in the race and make some educated guesses about what is going to happen next week. I’ll be honest though, my passion for the race is waning. With Porte out of the race and Quintana obviously not himself I don’t see any way that Froome and Team Sky don’t win a 4th Tour de France (5th overall for Sky). In an attempt to “Froome proof” the route (much like when Augusta National tried to “Tiger proof” the course there) they have actually made it easier for him to win. The lack of summit finishes in the Pyrenees and Alps limit the opportunities of those who trail him to make up time. The organizers designed the course to make the favorites race for seconds and in doing so made it almost impossible to gain back minutes. Aru is in second (@18 seconds) and Bardet in third (@51 seconds) and Uran in fourth (@55 seconds). In a normal Tour these would be very manageable gaps headed into the high mountains. The problem with this group is that Froome took 37 seconds from Aru, 39 from Bardet, and almost a minute from Uran in the 14km ITT on stage one. The last TT in Marseilles is 22.5km which would extrapolate out to around 1 minute or more to Aru all the way to almost 2 minutes for Uran. In order for someone to beat Froome they will have to not only get back to level terms (which is a big ask) they will have to put time into him prior to the final ITT. It is a tall order and I just don’t think that anyone left in the race can do that.

The Green Jersey competition isn’t much better with the disqualification of Peter Sagan and Cavendish crashing out. Add to the elimination of Arnaud Demare on time yesterday and you get a very depleted group going after the Maillot Vert.  Marcel Kittel leads over Michael Matthews with Andre Greipel a distant third. An example of how thin the sprinter pool is now Dan Martin, Fabio Aru, and Chris Froome sit 7-9th respectively on points.

Week two starts with two sprint stages followed by two days in the Pyrenees. The sprint stages will let the climbers get the rest day out of their legs so no one should suffer from “dead legs” on the first climb. Barring something unexpected Froome and Sky will hold the jersey until the next rest day where we will reevaluate once again.

Stage 10 Perigueux-Bergerac (178 km)

Stage 10 winds southeast out of Perigueux and then turns back west for the finish in Bergerac. There are only two very minor Category IV climbs on course and with a dead flat finish this is a day for the sprinters. I expect Marcel Kittel to extend his lead in the Green Jersey competition and take the win.